The ongoing war in Ukraine raises many questions about the country’s future. Currently, no one can determine what the final magnitude of the destruction will be, or what the post-war starting point of the Ukrainian economy will be. We also do not know what territories the new Ukraine will have, but we firmly believe that it will be an independent country, including Donbas, Lugansk and the Crimean peninsula. Extensive reconstruction of Ukraine is planned, with the participation of its allies. If Ukraine remains in the West’s area of influence, and as of the date of the report, everything indicates this, a significant portion of the funds for its reconstruction will come from the European Union, the US, as well as international institutions. Currently, all stakeholders are preparing for reconstruction financing, having already created some concepts for support. Some of the plans made have already seen the light of day in the form of publications describing the basic premises. This report will review published documents that address how to finance and rebuild Ukraine, and synthesize them to present the most likely and optimal scenarios for allocating resources for this purpose. In addition to reviewing the solutions proposed by the institutions concerned, we prepared our own proposals, and also reached out to experts.
Chapter 2 describes the necessary circumstances in which Ukraine must find itself in order for the optimistic scenario to be fulfilled, in which substantial resources, both public and private, will stream in to become “a driving force” for Ukraine’s economy. The report also outlines potential mechanisms for the disposition of the funds acquired, as well as for controlling and evaluating the effectiveness of the undertaken efforts. In addition, we quote the opinions of experts in the form of interviews so as to compare different visions of reconstruction and development of Ukraine.
For the optimistic reconstruction scenario to come to fruition, in addition to the support of international institutions and allied governments, the involvement of private capital will be essential. This report also addresses the incentives and conditions necessary for private capital to be involved in reconstruction, especially in the context of the potential expansion of Polish entrepreneurship into the Ukrainian market after the war. Such expansion is plausible not only because of the unique role of Poland and Poles during the conflict, but also due to territorial proximity and conducive human resources resulting from the long-standing immigration of Ukrainians to Poland. In order to investigate interest in rebuilding and expanding into the Ukrainian market, we conducted a series of interviews with entrepreneurs from the small and medium-sized business sector, determining what type of companies and industries might be interested in investing or selling their products and services in Ukraine.