The Warsaw Enterprise Institute, in cooperation with the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers, has calculated how much the Polish economy has lost and is still losing as a result of the creeping lockdown. The countdown will run until the last frozen industry is restarted and the lockdown policy is finally abandoned.

 

WEI’s position is that industries such as fitness, food and beverage, culture and entertainment, and hospitality should have operated continuously since the start of the pandemic – subject to tighter sanitation, so the losses incurred as a result of the lockdown were not a necessity.

Our numerator – based on a sectoral input-output model – takes into account not only the lost revenue in the frozen industries, but also the indirect results that their lockdown had on other sectors. Examples include declines in output in other sectors such as transportation, wholesale trade, and electricity, which were not directly affected by the restrictions but still suffered from the shutdown.

The figure also takes into account the fact that not only did the sectoral restrictions imposed by the Polish government contribute to the declines in income, but also the declines in foreign demand and the fact that even if the industries in question had not been frozen, they would have felt the effects of the decline in consumer sentiment and the overall economic downturn.